July 2025

Decreasing I-CIP reflects uncertain global economic climate
Green Coffee Price
 The ICO Composite Indicator Price (I-CIP) averaged 259.31 US cents/lb in July 2025, an 11.8% decrease from June 2025.
 The Colombian Milds’ and Other Milds’ prices both decreased by 10.5% and 10.4% compared to June 2025, averaging
322.37 and 325.50 US cents/lb, respectively, in July 2025. The Brazilian Naturals also fell 12.3% to 297.04 US cents/lb in
July 2025. The Robustas retracted the most, down 14.8% to 167.19 US cents/lb.
 The Colombian Milds–Other Milds differential shrank further from -3.08 to -3.13 US cents/lb between June 2025 and
July 2025.
 The arbitrage, as measured between the London and New York futures markets, shrank further by -7.2% to
135.74 US cents/lb in July 2025.
 The intra-day volatility of the I-CIP declined by 0.1 percentage points compared to June 2025, averaging 10.2% in
July 2025.
 The London certified stocks of Robusta coffee increased by 35.8% from June 2025 to July 2025, closing the month at
1.18 million bags. Certified stocks of Arabica coffee followed the opposite trend, shrinking to 0.83 million 60-kg bags, an
8.1% decrease versus June 2025.
Exports by Coffee Groups – Green Beans
 In June 2025, green bean exports totalled 10.23 million bags, as compared with 9.91 million bags in June 2024, up 3.3%.
 Of these:
 Colombian Milds increased by 9.0% in June 2025 to 1.1 million bags from 1.01 million bags in June 2024.
 Other Milds were up 14.8% in June 2025 to 2.71 million bags from 2.36 million bags in the same period in 2024.
 Brazilian Naturals decreased by 21.3% in June 2025 to 2.51 million bags from 3.19 million bags in June 2024.
 Robustas were up 16.9% to 3.92 million bags in June 2025 from 3.35 million bags in June 2024.
 The Arabicas’ share of the total green bean exports for the first nine months of coffee year 2024/25 to May 2025 increased
to 62.9% from 61.4% over the same period a year ago.
Exports by Regions – All Forms of Coffee
 In June 2025, exports of all forms of coffee from:
 Asia & Oceania were up 38.6% to 3.34 million bags in June 2025 from 2.41 million bags in June 2024.
 Africa increased by 28.1% in June 2025 to 2.19 million bags from 1.71 million bags in June 2024.
 South America decreased by 18.1% to 4.16 million bags from 5.08 million bags in June 2024.
 Mexico & Central America increased by 18.0% to 2.0 million bags as compared with 1.69 million bags in June 2024.
Exports of Coffee by Forms
 Total exports of soluble coffee increased by 47.2% in June 2025 to 1.35 million bags from 0.94 million bags in June 2024.
 Exports of roasted beans were up 58.1% in June 2025, reaching 0.08 million bags, compared to 0.05 million bags in
June 2024.

Green Coffee Price
The ICO Composite Indicator Price (I-CIP) averaged 259.31 US cents/lb in July 2025,
an 11.8% decrease from June 2025. The I-CIP posted a median value of 258.78 US cents/lb and
fluctuated between 252.46 and 269.57 US cents/lb. The I-CIP followed a downward trend
throughout the month of July. The July 2025 I-CIP is above the July 2024 I-CIP by 9.6%, with the
12-month rolling average at 296.29 US cents/lb.

The Colombian Milds’ and Other Milds’ prices both decreased by 10.5% and 10.4% compared to
June 2025, averaging 322.37 and 325.50 US cents/lb, respectively, in July 2025. The Brazilian
Naturals also fell 12.3% to 297.04 US cents/lb in July 2025. The Robustas retracted the most,
down 14.8% to 167.19 US cents/lb. The prices at the London Intercontinental Commodity
Exchange (ICE) market decreased by 16.3% to 153.43 US cents/lb, while the New York ICE market
shrank by 12.3% to 289.17 US cents/lb in July 2025, a nine-month low.

In July 2025, some key events applied downward pressure on the market, as follows:
 An improved supply and demand situation, where the underlying fundamentals are more
positive, with coffee year 2024/25 estimated to be in surplus.
 An improved harvest from Brazil, with the weekly progress throughout July showing that
it is ahead of the rate for crop year 2024/25. Safras & Mercado stated that on 23 July
Brazil’s harvest was 84% complete as compared to 81% last year.
 The overall uncertainty brought to the global economy with new United States (US)
import tariff announcements. The National Institute of Economic and Social Research
estimated, on 4 August 2025, that the current United States import tariffs could reduce
global GDP by 1.1% by 2030 compared to a non-tariff baseline1
.
 In London, LIFFE-held stocks of Robusta coffee increased by 35.8% to 1.18 million bags
in July 2025 — the highest level since June 2023, when stocks reached 1.25 million bags.
 While a small surplus may be available in coffee year 2024/25, this may not be enough to
build stock back up in key destination markets.
New Arabica contract listing (“AC”):
From Monday 8 September, ICE Futures U.S. will begin listing the previously announced Coffee
“C” Metric futures and options contracts (contract symbol AC), a 10 metric tonne contract size.
Deliverable origins include:
Brazil, Burundi, Colombia, Costa Rica, Dominican Republic, Ecuador, El Salvador, Guatemala,
Honduras, India, Kenya, Mexico, Papua New Guinea, Nicaragua, Panama, Peru, Rwanda, Tanzania,
Uganda, Venezuela and Vietnam

Origin differentials:

• Mexico, El Salvador, Nicaragua, Papua New Guinea, Tanzania, Uganda, Panama, Peru and
  Honduras at Par.
• Guatemala at $110/tonne premium.
• Colombia, Costa Rica and Kenya at $220/tonne premium.
• Venezuela, Burundi, Rwanda and India at $22/tonne discount.
• Dominican Republic and Ecuador at $88/tonne discount.
• Brazil and Vietnam at $132/tonne point discount.
  The Colombian Milds–Other Milds differential shrank further from -3.08 to -3.13 US cents/lb
  between June 2025 and July 2025. The Colombian Milds–Brazilian Naturals differential widened
  by 17.5% to 25.32 US cents/lb, whilst the Colombian Milds–Robustas differential shrank by 5.3%
  from June 2025 to July 2025, averaging 155.17 US cents/lb. Meanwhile, the Other Milds–Brazilian
  Naturals and Other Milds–Robustas differentials moved by 15.5% and -5.2% to 28.45 and
  158.31 US cents/lb, respectively. The Brazilian Naturals–Robustas differential shrank by -8.8%
  averaging 129.85 US cents/lb in July 2025.
  The arbitrage, as measured between the London and New York futures markets, shrank further by
  -7.2% to 135.74 US cents/lb in July 2025.

The intra-day volatility of the I-CIP declined by 0.1 percentage points compared to June 2025,
averaging 10.2% in July 2025. The volatility of the Colombian Milds and Other Milds remained
level at 10.0% and 10.1%, respectively. Meanwhile, the Brazilian Naturals oscillated by
-1.3 percentage points, month-on-month, to 10.7% in July 2025. The Robustas’ volatility increased
to 13.1% from 10.3% in June 2025. At the New York and London futures markets, the volatilities
were at 11.6% and 16.6%, respectively, in July 2025, up by 1.2 and 6.1 percentage points compared
to June 2025.
The London certified stocks of Robusta coffee increased by 35.8% from June 2025 to July 2025,
closing the month at 1.18 million bags. Certified stocks of Arabica coffee followed the opposite
trend, shrinking to 0.83 million 60-kg bags, an 8.1% decrease versus June 2025.